p-values and modus tollens
Modus tollens in logic
In logic, there is an argument style called modus tollens:
If H0 then R
Not R
therefore
Not H0
This is a valid argument.
Modus tollens misapplied to p-values
Some people mis-apply this to p-values, saying:
If H0 then probably not R
Not R
therefore
Probably not H0
This is not valid.
Example of proper and improper modus tollens
Proper:
If a person is an American citizen, then that person is not a member of parliament
This person is a member of parliament
therefore
This person is not an American citizen
Improper
If a person is an American citizen, then that person is probably not a senator
This person is a senator
therefore
This person is not an American citizen